Keynotes

Science  &  Engineering

for RELIABLE ENERGY

The 6th International Conference & Workshop

2016

18-20 May 2016

Budva, Montenegro

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Plenary

Jan BLOMGREN

CEO INBEx;
Professor at the Uppsala University, SWEDEN

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HOW TO PREDICT THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM

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How can we predict the development of energy supply in the future? This is a complex large-scale issue that involves science, technology, politics, economy, sociology, ethics and many other areas. We believe the scientific laws of nature are a more firm foundation for predictions than analyzing present politics. However, we also realize societal aspects play a significant role. In this contribution, we therefore concentrate on analysis methods rooted in science but in which some important societal aspects are introduced, with as little political correctness and wishful thinking as possible. When summarizing a set of such analyses, we arrive the following predictions:

Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy supply for a foreseeable future, no matter the climate debate.

Solar photovoltaics will remain a niche technology accounting for less than 5 % of the global electricity supply for a foreseeable future, and possibly forever so.

No radically new energy technologies are likely to appear in a near future, or possibly never.

Hydro power will be developed to about 50-70 % of the theoretically available resource, providing 10-20 % of the global electricity supply.

Nuclear power will be part of the global energy mix on about the same level for a long time.

Wind power will continue to grow and account for up to 10 % of the global electricity supply in a few decades, but will not grow beyond that fraction.

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